Determining Best Appropriate Model for the Infant Mortality by Using Maternal Mortality and Poverty Map Survey in Iraq / 2012

Abstract

Although many studies have been conducted with regards to the mortality rate of infants in Iraq, there are still no rigid models that unambiguously could diagnose and build up some models, methods and methodologies to reduce these increasing rates. The dilemma of this research is the lack, or in fact, the absence of concrete mathematical models that can construct firm strategies to uncover some methodologies which dramatically can reduce such scary rates of infants mortality in Iraq. The primary aim of the research is to develop models that can define and explain the problematical situation, diagnose the factors, explore the related critical issues of infant mortality and build up strategies. The developments of these models are based on proper statistical and mathematical analyses Developments of these models are based on proper statistical and mathematical analyses. The significances of the paper are to improve the performance of the government’s offices by enriching and enhancing their data by such models and analyses; such as taking precise and proactive decisions and helps to forecast, decrease and avoid such infants’ mortality rates in the future. Also, it aids to draw some strategies in the short, middle and long terms. The data in this paper is relied on the survey of the mothers’ mortality rate and poverty map which was conducted in 2012. The methods of Logistic Regression have been conducted as well as Linear Regression (Log Linear, Quadratic and Cubic & Logistic Growth Curve). The method of Multiple Linear Regression has been considered to conduct this research. Then a proposal of developing a future strategy has been given to first decrease the infants mortality rates and second to provide the proper environment for infants. The Simplex Method was chosen to develop the proposal based on selected variables. Then these variables were manually moved within the limited range in one time and exceeded the limited range by the central statistics center in the other time to find out the least rate of infants mortality. The results of this research are 1) the perfect square area of infant's family is 300. 2) The perfect sanitary system of infant's family house is public net 3) The education level of infant's mother is high school. 3) The perfect number of kids of mothers who have (1-13 kids) is one. 4) The perfect number of kids for mothers who have (14-25 kids) is 14.