Using Time Series Analysis to Predicting of the Amount of Solid Waste for Baghdad Governorate From 2008 - 2018

Abstract

The economic problem is the most critical and most prominent in Iraq, because it creates crises and disturbances that impact every sector. In line with the fast developments made by humanity, and the rapid increase of population, problems exacerbated, mainly the environmental problem. Due to the lack of proper solutions and shortage of public awareness, these problems have complicated. Taking into consideration the scarcity of resources and the right of the incoming generations, the humanity endeavors, through different modalities, to set plans and develop tools to tackle these continued problems, and improves economic and social conditions of citizens.Statistical tools are among different modalities that could tackle many problems through data analysis of economic or environmental phenomena and help decision makers take right decisions. The importance of future forecast through time series is growing and evolving because it contributes to achieve important objectives. Therefore, the model of Box and Jenkins has been one of the best models in this field. The research aims to predict the amount of municipal waste produced during each year, as well as predict its future quantities for the years 2019-2024 by using the Box-Jenkins models and take advantage of statistical methods and use them to solve the problem of data on aspects of the environment and to reach appropriate decisions on them.The study included the statistical side, which includes a theoretical side and a practical side through a ready statistical program (GRETL). The time series was analyzed for(2008-2018) and the best predictive model for this data was reached, which is the ARIMA model (1,0,0), and then employing this model in the future prediction of the amount of municipal waste For the years (2019_ 2024), while the second axis focused on analyzing these data and arriving at the amount of waste produced annually from the landfills of those wastes in the event that they were managed in the correct methods. In the future. As the study concluded that the quantities produced from these wastes are very large and increasing quantities due to the population increase.`